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Independent and weakly coupled processes

The experiments show that the NDFA algorithm is able to extract predictable factors from the observations. The 1000 observations given for the algorithm can span the ten dimensional factor space only sparsely which indicates that the MLP network must have been able to generalise very well. This is possible since the observations were generated by lower-dimensional independent processes and the dynamics of the whole system can thus be expressed as a sum of the individual simple dynamics. This type of a mapping is easy to model with an MLP network.

The innovation process has a Gaussian prior which means that there is a rotational degeneracy in the model as certain rotations map the diagonal Gaussian density onto another diagonal Gaussian density. The rotation can be absorbed in the linear mappings of the MLP networks thus resulting in an equivalent model. However, the factors extracted by the algorithm are clearly very close to the original undelying time series used in generating the data. Each factor can be attributed to one process and none of the factors is a mixture of the states of different elementary processes as would be expected if the algorithm would randomly settle to one of the equivalent rotations of the factor space.

The reason is that the approximation of the posterior probability of the factors cannot represent all the degenerate solutions equally well. The approximation assumes each factor to be independent of the other factors given the observations. The dynamic mapping induces posterior correlations which violate this assumption but the learning algorithm finds the solution which is closest to the assumption. It turns out that this is achieved by separating the underlying processes, thus yielding sparse dynamic couplings between different factors.


next up previous
Next: Future directions Up: Discussion Previous: Discussion
Harri Valpola
2000-10-17